Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 2.275741 2.404794 2.544850 2.709644 2.900310 3.116697 3.385041
2025-09-28 2.105864 2.263022 2.440509 2.659366 2.927450 3.253346 3.694242
2025-10-05 2.044236 2.227925 2.442560 2.718566 3.075422 3.540572 4.233916
2025-10-12 2.009978 2.217696 2.467887 2.802401 3.258397 3.897968 4.965323
2025-10-19 1.940589 2.157722 2.424354 2.790115 3.307171 4.072316 5.471293
2025-10-26 1.888825 2.114991 2.397710 2.795056 3.377124 4.287454 6.133339
2025-11-02 1.821092 2.047713 2.334049 2.742507 3.354434 4.346972 6.514706
2025-11-09 1.772095 2.001528 2.294763 2.719886 3.372898 4.477635 7.125657
2025-11-16 1.730517 1.962659 2.262550 2.704035 3.398822 4.625293 7.884824
2025-11-23 1.691801 1.925622 2.230512 2.685475 3.417325 4.761862 8.740134
2025-11-30 1.669129 1.908490 2.224355 2.704079 3.498635 5.042070 10.463511
2025-12-07 1.612925 1.844775 2.150969 2.616546 3.389186 4.895844 10.257325
2025-12-14 1.584666 1.818803 2.130889 2.612050 3.429623 5.101409 12.192356
2025-12-21 1.545013 1.776096 2.085404 2.565325 3.389805 5.114713 13.176343
2025-12-28 1.539293 1.778858 2.104055 2.619633 3.539881 5.632956 21.274506
2026-01-04 1.540160 1.790387 2.135502 2.696495 3.744988 6.408008 142.187281
2026-01-11 1.516139 1.766595 2.114226 2.685077 3.772804 6.677079 NaN
2026-01-18 1.497841 1.750130 2.102970 2.689512 3.834013 7.095025 NaN
2026-01-25 1.466537 1.714575 2.062036 2.641171 3.777136 7.062208 NaN
2026-02-01 1.443944 1.690713 2.037828 2.620315 3.778304 7.260838 NaN
2026-02-08 1.424071 1.670163 2.017879 2.605692 3.791728 7.522940 NaN
2026-02-15 1.404503 1.649551 1.997147 2.588575 3.797764 7.764286 NaN
2026-02-22 1.394435 1.642105 1.996024 2.605692 3.884553 8.458450 NaN